New Seat Details - Sheffield South East

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	28,706	60.0%
CON	14,434	30.2%
UKIP	3,034	6.3%
LIB	1,495	3.1%
OTH	128	0.3%
Green	72	0.2%
LAB Majority	14,272	29.8%

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Sheffield South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Sheffield South East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Sheffield South East

Old seat: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sheffield	Burngreave	13,617	Sheffield North and Ecclesfield; Sheffield South East	1,790	8,017	155	542	182	0	0	67	10,753
Sheffield	Firth Park	13,772	Sheffield North and Ecclesfield	1,683	5,766	157	544	133	0	0	31	8,314
Sheffield	Hillsborough	13,707	Sheffield Central	2,033	4,116	380	484	157	0	0	32	7,202
Sheffield	Shiregreen and Brightside	13,576	Sheffield North and Ecclesfield	1,856	5,412	177	559	143	0	0	15	8,162
Sheffield	Southey	13,045	Sheffield North and Ecclesfield	1,689	4,883	192	516	121	0	0	40	7,441
	Total	67,717		9,051	28,194	1,061	2,645	736	0	0	185	41,872

Old seat: Sheffield South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sheffield South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sheffield South East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sheffield	Beighton	13,027	Sheffield South East	3,033	4,204	282	536	0	0	0	13	8,068
Sheffield	Birley	12,591	Sheffield South East	2,399	4,576	300	542	0	0	0	15	7,832
Sheffield	Darnall	14,743	Sheffield South East	2,644	7,459	233	623	0	0	0	38	10,997
Sheffield	Mosborough	13,490	Sheffield South East	3,096	4,366	360	558	0	0	0	14	8,394
Sheffield	Woodhouse	13,136	Sheffield South East	2,551	4,915	258	560	0	0	0	21	8,305
	Total	66,987		13,723	25,520	1,433	2,819	0	0	0	101	43,596

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sheffield South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Sheffield South East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Sheffield South East
Sheffield	Beighton	12,760	Sheffield South East	3,033	4,204	282	536	0	0	0	13	8,068
Sheffield	Birley	12,385	Sheffield South East	2,399	4,576	300	542	0	0	0	15	7,832
Sheffield	Burngreave	7,180	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	711	3,186	62	215	72	0	0	27	4,273
Sheffield	Darnall	17,391	Sheffield South East	2,644	7,459	233	623	0	0	0	38	10,997
Sheffield	Mosborough	13,277	Sheffield South East	3,096	4,366	360	558	0	0	0	14	8,394
Sheffield	Woodhouse	13,133	Sheffield South East	2,551	4,915	258	560	0	0	0	21	8,305
	Total	76,126		14,434	28,706	1,495	3,034	72	0	0	128	47,869

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Sheffield South East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Clive Betts (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	76,126
Turnout:	62.9%

Sheffield South East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Sheffield South East: Overview